D'Back Repeat in West?Dave Paisley

Well, we've worked our way across to the West Coast in the National League. Can the Diamondbacks repeat? Why don't we find out?

Arizona Diamondbacks
In: IF Luis Ordaz, P Russ Springer, P Brad Clontz

Out: OF Dante Powell, P Andy Benes, P Gregg Olson, PTBNL, P Bobby Chouinard?

It will be very interesting to see how the Chouinard affair plays out in the D-Backs organization, especially in light of the John Rocker situation. As my esteemed colleague Michael Cox pointed out recently, where's the hue and cry over aggravated assault? Of course, Chouinard is entitled to a fair trial, whereas no such avenue exists for Rocker in the court of public opinion.

Anyway, it should make life interesting down in Tucson at spring training. With a hundred wins under their belts last year, it's evident the Diamondbacks aren't about to make wholesale changes. Yet can they get the same type of seasons from Finley, Williams and Gonzalez? Will Tony Womack be too much of a liability at short, presuming that move actually happens?

Russ Springer for Andy Benes isn't going to make a lot of difference, but losing the erratic Gregg Olson should help marginally. Johnson, Stottlemyre, Reynoso and Daal looks like a good rotation, but I doubt the miraculous scoring of 1999 will hold up.

Colorado Rockies
In: C Scott Servais, C Brent Mayne, 3B Jeff Cirillo, IF Aaron Ledesma, IF Brent Butler, OF Jeffrey Hammonds, OF Tom Goodwin, P Rolando Arrojo, P Scott Karl, P Butch Henry, P Jose Jimenez, P Manny Aybar, P Rick Croushore, P Julian Tavarez, P Mike Myers, P Stan Belinda

Out: C Henry Blanco, 3B Vinny Castilla, OF Dante Bichette, P Darryl Kile, P Jamey Wright, P Dave Veres, P Luther Hackman, P Curtis Leskanic, P Justin Miller

The Rockies have been busy in the off-season, and it appears that their main objective was to unload portly sluggers, namely Dante Bichette and Vinny Castilla. That part of the plan has gone beautifully. While there are doubts about Hammond's ability to be a full time player, he can hardly be a step down from Bichette. Cirillo should flourish in Colorado and be a big improvement on the declining Castilla. Signing Tom Goodwin wasn't very bright, but it was smarter than getting say, Brian Hunter from the Mariners. On the other hand, Goodwin does provide defense and if the Rockies don't intend to rely on him for offense, maybe it's OK.

The other part of the plan appears to have been to turn over the entire pitching staff. They now have an embarrassment of riches for the rotation, adding four starters to Pedro Astacio and Brian Bohanon. It will obviously be a mixed blessing as Arrojo, Karl, Henry and Jimenez see their ERAs skyrocket in the thin air. Darryl Kile and Jamey Wright mercifully return to sea level to ply their trade, where they will probably rebuild their careers.

Like the Cardinals, it's pretty difficult to tell just what the effect of all this churn will be, but overall, I expect an improvement. Not much, but maybe up to the .500 mark.

Los Angeles Dodgers
In: IF F. P. Santangelo, 2B Jorge Nunez, 3B Kevin Orie, OF Shawn Green, P Orel Hershiser, P Mike Fetters, P Dan Naulty, P Terry Adams, P Chad Ricketts, P Brian Stephenson, P Gregg Olson

Out: 1B Nicholas Leach, 2B Eric Young, OF Raul Mondesi, P Ismael Valdes, P Pedro Borbon, PTBNL

No surprise that there's been quite a bit of activity at Chavez Ravine in the off-season, given the dire performance of last year. Shawn Green for Raul Mondesi was a pretty good swap, and ultimately for about the same moolah. I think they gave up on Ismael Valdes a bit too easily. It's a bit too late to expect much out of Orel Hershiser, but at least it's a nice touch for nostalgia buffs. Given the election of Fisk and Perez to the Hall of Fame, it looks like nostalgia is in this year. Or is that neuralgia?

Nothing here indicates that the Dodgers will get significantly better in 2000, but given that 1999 was a nightmare death spiral without an obvious cause going in, a rebound is in the cards. Not enough to win the division, as Eric Karros and Mark Grudzielanek are still out there, but enough to struggle over the .500 mark.

San Diego Padres
In: 1B Ryan Klesko, 2B Bret Boone, P Carlton Loewer, P Steve Montgomery, P Adam Eaton, P Brian Meadows, P Jason Shiell, P Dan Serafini

Out: 1B Wally Joyner, 2B Quilvio Veras, OF Reggie Sanders, OF Brandon Pernell, P Andy Ashby, P Dan Miceli, P Carlos Reyes, P Stan Spencer, P Matt Whiteside

Not being a charter member of the Bret Boone fan club, I'm not very excited about the Padres chances of doing very well in 2000. The Andy Ashby trade wasn't a very good move for short-term gain, although Adam Eaton may prove to have been worth it in the long run. While he's a decent enough pitcher, the phrase "ace of the staff Sterling Hitchcock" isn't going to send any shivers down the spines of the NL elite. Not even the NL dregs, as it turns out. It could be a very long year in San Diego.

San Francisco Giants
In: C Bobby Estalella, P Ken Ray, PTBNL

Out: C Scott Servais, C Brent Mayne, IF F. P. Santangelo, P Chris Brock, P Jerry Spradlin, P Julian Tavarez

The theme in San Francisco appears to be All Quiet on the Western Front. Losing two backup catchers and a banjo hitting utility infielder won't be much of a blow, but acquiring Bobby Estalella isn't the key to the NL West championship, either. Can Russ Ortiz keep up his 1999 form? After two ugly years can Shawn Estes regain his form of 1997? In many ways the pitching is the key to the Giants in 2000.

In many ways, this is a tough division to figure out. The Diamondbacks may have had a season in a million last year and should fall back to earth, but how far? The Dodgers should do better, but by how much? The Rockies aren't likely to contend, certainly not enough to win the division. The Padres should finish last by a fairly wide margin, while the Giants will probably overachieve their way to respectability once again. Coming into this look at the NL West I didn't think the Diamondbacks could repeat, but looking at the competition, it's hard to find a reason why they shouldn't.

In a brief visit to Reno this week, Dave Paisley managed to put not so much as a dime in a slot machine. Tell him he shouldn't be betting on baseball futures either, at drdjp@strikethree.com

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