Signing Opining

Jason Michael Barker

With the exception of Chuck Finley and Kenny Rogers signing fairly early this offseason, the majority of top free agent pitching was still unsigned as of a week ago. That all changed Friday, however, when it was reported that the Orioles were close to a deal with Aaron Sele, who was also considering Tampa Bay. Having lost out on Sele, the Devil Rays signed Juan Guzman. Elsewhere, the Cardinals signed Andy Benes and the A's re-signed Omar Olivares, neither of whom appears to have received much attention elsewhere.

Juan Guzman, Tampa Bay
Terms: Two years, $12M (club option for 2002 at $7M or $500K buyout)

When healthy, as he has been the last two seasons, Guzman is a very good pitcher. He's pitched 200 innings each of the past two years with an ERA right around four, and while his walk rates tend to be high, he also generally allows less than a hit per inning. He also has some postseason experience from his days in Toronto in the early 1990's. The downside is that he turned 33 last October, and has a history of nagging pitching-related injuries.

This was a very good signing for the Devil Rays, and I'm a bit surprised Guzman didn't get any more serious interest from other clubs. Normally signing a 33-year old pitcher is a bit risky, but the money isn't unreasonable, it's only a two-year contract, and he's been essentially healthy for three of the past four seasons. Tampa Bay has made some questionable moves this offseason, but signing Guzman is a step in the right direction.

Aaron Sele, Baltimore
Terms: Four years, $29M (rumored)

The Rangers apparently offered Sele four years at $28M to remain in Texas, but GM Doug Melvin later took the deal off the table, deciding instead to sign free-agent Kenny Rogers. Other rumblings had Sele back home in Seattle for four years at $30M, but that never made it past the rumor stage.

After two disappointing years with the Red Sox (1996, 1997), Sele turned his career around in Texas in 1998. In addition to winning 19 games and lowering his ERA by a full run from the previous season, he made serious improvements in his peripheral stats: increased strikeout rate, decreased walk rate, and fewer home runs allowed. He improved both his walk and strikeout rate again in 1999, but his ERA ballooned to nearly five.

Normally those improvements are a good predictor of a pitcher who's getting better, and Sele is certainly young enough to be still improving, but which is the real Sele, the 1998 version or the 1999 model? The Orioles are obviously banking on the former given the investment they're making in him, and Sele has four years to prove them right. I'm inclined to say that Sele has been a bit overrated due to some good run support, but if his peripheral improvements are for real, he could have a breakout season in the near future.

Andy Benes, St. Louis
Terms: Three years, $18M ($6M mutual option for 2003)

If you recall, the Cards tried to re-sign Andy Benes when he was a free agent after the 1996 season, but MLB ruled that the five-year contract he signed came just hours after a December 7 signing deadline. Rather than wait around to sign with the Cardinals, Benes signed a two-year deal with the Diamondbacks, for whom he went 17-15 with a 4.35 ERA.

The Cardinals have now added Benes, Darryl Kile and Pat Hentgen in an attempt to bolster what was a weak starting staff in 1999. However, all three are question marks -- including Benes, who put up the worst ERA (4.78) of his 11-year career and surrendered 34 homers in just 198.1 innings last season. He is relatively durable, however, and while he isn't quite the steal Guzman is and doesn't have the potential upside of Sele, Benes is a good bet for 200 league-average (or slightly better) innings. That certainly has value, and given the money this isn't a bad deal.

Omar Olivares, Oakland
Terms: Two years, $8M (Olivares can opt out after one year)

The only mention I saw of another team being interested in Olivares' services was an offer from the Rockies, but apparently he never seriously considered it -- in fact, his new contract has a no-trade clause which protects him from being traded to either Colorado or Philadelphia. Frankly, I'm surprised more pitchers don't ask for such clauses.

Olivares has had perhaps the best two years of his career the past two seasons, but he's been a bit underappreciated because he hasn't posted gaudy win totals (just 24 over the two-year span, but keep in mind he spent most of that time on a very bad Angels team) and he's not overpowering. In his career he's struck out less than five batters per nine innings, and last season he fanned only three and a half hitters per nine frames. He also walks too many hitters, but somehow he's always found a way to get the job done.

The pessimist in me says his declining strikeout rates are a bad sign for the future, but since he's always had success as this sort of pitcher I don't see any reason why he shouldn't keep it up. It's only a two-year deal, and $4M a year for a better-than-average pitcher (4.10 ERA the past two seasons) is pretty damn cheap in today's market.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker's contract with Strikethree.com stipulates that he cannot be traded to CNN/SI, and that on his desk appears a fresh, slightly chilled Ho-Ho each morning. Don't bring up the subject of the day his Ho-Ho was room temperature at jmb@strikethree.com.