Trajectories of Success

Jason Michael Barker

Today I'd like to look at two of the more obscure baseball statistics with regard to the 1999 season -- pitches per plate appearance and ground ball-to-fly ball ratio. If this sounds at all familiar, it's because I did a similar piece last winter, looking back at the 1998 season.

First up is pitches per plate appearance (P/PA). Last season there were a total of 35 players who saw at least four pitches per plate appearance, up from 27 in 1998. In order to keep the chart manageable, we'll look at the 18 players who saw 4.1 or more pitches last season:

Player	Team	P/PA	Walks	OBP	OPS
Jay Bell	ARZ	4.4	82	.374	.931
John Jaha	OAK	4.4	101	.414	.970
Bobby Abreu	PHI	4.3	109	.446	.995
Edgar Martinez	SEA	4.3	97	.447	1.001
Jim Thome	CLE	4.3	127	.426	.967
Jeromy Burnitz	MIL	4.3	91	.402	.963
Roberto Alomar	CLE	4.2	99	.422	.955
Matt Stairs	OAK	4.2	89	.366	.899
Alex Rodriguez	SEA	4.1	56	.357	.943
Rusty Greer	TEX	4.1	96	.405	.898
Manny Ramirez	CLE	4.1	96	.442	1.105
Fernando Tatis	STL	4.1	82	.404	.957
Ron Gant	PHI	4.1	85	.364	.794
Ray Durham	CHW	4.1	73	.373	.808
Edgardo Alfonzo	NYM	4.1	85	.385	.886
Greg Norton	CHW	4.1	69	.358	.782
Jeff Bagwell	HOU	4.1	149	.454	1.045
Jeremy Giambi	OAK	4.1	105	.422	.975

Two relative surprises jump off the screen right at the top of the list: Jay Bell and John Jaha, two veterans who had career seasons in 1999. Checking in at 4.3 pitches per plate appearance are a few names you might expect -- Edgar Martinez, Jim Thome, Jeromy Burnitz -- and one surprise in Bobby Abreu, who had a monster season in the relative anonymity of Philadelphia.

Continuing down the list reveals some of baseball's better hitters. You could assemble quite a batting order from the players on this list, and although we're missing a catcher, I'm willing to overlook Mike Piazza's relative impatience if he's willing to play for this squad.

Just looking at each player's walk total, a few names stand out in the sense of "one of these things is not like the others." The first is Alex Rodriguez, who drew just 56 walks this season and whose OBP doesn't stack up with the rest of the list. If there's one flaw in his game it's that he doesn't draw enough walks, and I've knocked him in the past for not being patient enough at the plate.

How do we explain his high P/PA, then? This is just anecdotal, but from watching a ton of Mariners' games since Rodriguez came into the league, I'd say he has knack for fouling off pitches to prolong at at-bat. Whether that's the case for Ray Durham (72 walks) and Greg Norton (69), I don't know.

In looking for some general trends, it's clear that the players on this list tend to draw more walks and get on base at a better rate than their fellow major leaguers -- 10 of the 18 players drew at least 90 walks, and 11 of 18 posted OBPs over .400. This also tends to lead to increased power, because selective hitters are more likely to see a pitch they can drive

At the bottom of the P/PA list for 1999 we find such undisciplined batsmen as Matt Williams, Vladimir Guererro, Mike Caruso, Deivi Cruz, Rey Sanchez, and Rey Ordoñez. Williams is too old to learn, Guererro is still young enough that he might, and the rest aren't very good to begin with.

We now turn our attention to the ground ball-to-fly ball (G:F) ratio. Unlike pitches per plate appearance, it might not be inherently obvious what a "good" G:F ratio is, or if this statistic is even remotely predictive of a hitter's productivity.

Player	Team	G:F	OPS		Player	Team	G:F	OPS
Luis Castillo	FLA	4.88	.750		Carlos Delgado	TOR	.79	.948
Carlos Febles	KC	2.54	.747		Jeromy Burnitz	MIL	.79	.963
Rey Sanchez	KC	2.34	.698		Jeff Kent	SF	.78	.877
Homer Bush	TOR	2.19	.774		Jeff Bagwell	HOU	.78	1.045
Mike Caruso	CHW	2.12	.577		Ken Griffey Jr.	SEA	.77	.960
Quilvio Veras	SD	2.05	.747		Edgardo Alfonzo	NYM	.72	.886
Royce Clayton	TEX	2.03	.792		Juan Gonzalez	TEX	.70	.980
Ivan Rodriguez	TEX	1.96	.914		Tony Batista	TOR	.64	.848
Brian Hunter	SEA	1.86	.581		Rafael Palmeiro	TEX	.61	1.050
Derek Bell	HOU	1.83	.656		Mark McGwire	STL	.56	1.120

While there aren't quite the trends we saw with P/PA, it doesn't take complicated statistical analysis to see which end of the list has the better hitters. At the high end of the G:F ratio spectrum there are some of the worst hitters in baseball, although players like Luis Castillo, Carlos Febles, and Quilvio Veras all have value because they do a good job getting on base. There's also pseudo-MVP Ivan Rodriguez, the only semblance of a power hitter on the high G:F list, which helps explain why he grounded into 32 double plays this season.

At the other end of the list are some of the game's elite power hitters, led by Mark McGwire. Big Mac topped the list in 1998 as well, checking in with a .52 G:F ratio, followed by Barry Bonds (.63), Frank Thomas (.69) and Rafael Palmeiro (.71). Also of note in 1999 are Seattle's David Bell and Houston's Carl Everett, both of whom finished the season with ratios of exactly 1.00.

What conclusions can we draw from these two obscure statistics? While neither number is a perfect correlate for offensive production, the data certainly suggests that patient hitters, and hitters who hit more fly balls, are better players than impatient hacks who pound the ball into the ground.

 

about the author

Jason Michael Barker recently changed his name to AnalogGuy, and on January 1 began his quest to spend the entire year dealing with people face-to-face, exercising, and going out and having fun. Suggest a good local coffee shop at jmb@strikethree.com.